-The options market in EUR/USD is looking a little odd.
The spot rate has, of course, declined relentlessly since late October, when it stood at $1.4248, all the way down to $1.2652.
However, while spot has fallen, International Monetary Market data continue to show speculators massively short of the euro and the euro-zone debt crisis grinds on, option-market participants have shown themselves less willing to pay for downside protection in EUR/USD, according to Societe Generale.
This has resulted in a divergence between spot EUR/USD and one-year risk reversals (the difference in volatility between similar call and put options), two markets that are usually quite well correlated.
This state of affairs is both sufficiently rare to be highlighted and also, in the view of the bank, unlikely to continue.
The trigger for options' relative cheer is uncertain, but it seems likely that the European Central Bank's huge provision of liquidity via its December Long-Term Refinancing Operation might have had something to do with it, taking the heat out of some of the euro's more immediate existential worries.
However, for the two markets to get back to a more normal relationship, someone is going to have to be wrong.
So far, it looks like being spot.
The fundamentals are just not solid enough to avoid a further decline, said Societe Generale. "This is why the spot market has not recovered and a further decline in market sentiment would bring risk reversals towards a down-trending spot price," the bank said. "With this in mind, the spot market is right to remain skeptical."
It looks even more so in light of Friday's credit-rating downgrade of nine euro-zone nations by Standard and Poor's, a move that has seen the euro slide further.
The last time we saw such a divergence between spot and options was a very brief moment in the late summer of 2011. Then it was resolved by the spot market dropping back into line with risk reversals.
This time, it seems, we will see normality restored the other way, with risk reversals falling back to recouple with falling spot.
Monday, 16 January 2012
EUR/USD Risk Reversals Should Recouple With Spot
France Telecom In Talks To Sell Orange Austria Telecom Stake
France Telecom SA (FTE.FR) is in talks to sell its 35% stake in Austrian telecommunications business Orange Austria to Hong Kong-based Hutchison Telecommunications (0215.HK), according to a person familiar with the matter.
The deal, which should be finalized in the coming weeks, would value the whole of Orange Austria at EUR1.4 billion, this person said. Private equity group Mid Europa Partners owns the remaining 65% stake in the Austrian mobile group. A spokeswoman for Mid Europa Partners declined to comment on the deal.
For France Telecom, the sale is part of a wider strategy to consolidate its footprint in Europe in an attempt to lower costs and boost revenue growth.
Thursday, 10 November 2011
BMO-Sponsored Booklet Helps Chinese Students Pick a Canadian University
BMO-Sponsored Booklet Helps Chinese Students Pick a Canadian University
BC Premier Christy Clark Presented With Copy During Visit to Shanghai
BMO ChinaCo welcomed the Honourable Christy Clark, Premier of British Columbia, to Shanghai to celebrate the publication of the 2nd edition of "Best of Canadian Education," a booklet designed to help Chinese students who wish to attend university in Canada learn about and choose the best schools.
"Best of Canadian Education," developed by the publishers of Hurun Report and sponsored by BMO Financial Group, provides extensive details on Canadian excellence in education and helps readers understand the long term benefits of education in Canada. This year's edition includes a foreword by Premier Clark, who was presented with a copy of the booklet during her official visit to Shanghai.
"With about 50,000 Chinese students currently studying in Canada, this is a must-read for students and parents to help them pick the right university in Canada," said Eunice Wang, Team Leader, Personal Banking Services, Shanghai Branch, BMO ChinaCo. "BMO can help these students with all their banking needs."
BMO in China
BMO is the only Canadian bank with branches in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Hong Kong, and was the first Canadian bank permitted to operate in the capital. The Bank also has a representative office in Taipei, Taiwan and an Investment Banking representative office in Beijing.
In October 2010, BMO officially opened its new incorporated subsidiary, Bank of Montreal (China) Co. Ltd. (BMO ChinaCo). With local incorporation, BMO joined a limited number of foreign banks in offering a broad range of financial services to its customers.
In July 2005, BMO's Guangzhou branch became the first Canadian bank location to be granted a license to provide RMB local currency service such as deposits and loans to both foreign and local companies in China, providing greater access to financial services in the country.
In 2010, BMO was named one of the "Most Popular Market Makers in China" by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) for the third consecutive year. This award is determined by popular vote among market makers. As in previous years, BMO was the only foreign bank to have won this award. All other recipients were Chinese banks, including Industrial Bank of China, Bank of China and Bank of Communications. In addition, BMO was again awarded "Best non-USD Market Maker" for the third year running. Of the 29 member banks in the Guangzhou jurisdiction, BMO is the only market maker and the only bank to have won this award.
To view the photo associated with this press release, please visit the following link: http://www.marketwire.com/library/20111108-BMOshanghai800.JPG.
Contact Information
Contacts:
Media contacts:
Peter Scott, Toronto
+1 416-867-3996
PeterE.Scott@bmo.com
Shenghow Lim, Beijing
+8610 8588 1487
shenghow.lim@bmo.com
Internet :
www.bmo.com
www.hurun.net/hurun/listreleaseen543.aspx
Monday, 29 August 2011
EUR/USD 29 July 2011
EUR/USD closed higher on Friday as it extends this summer's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, it needs to close above or below the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move
Thursday, 18 August 2011
巢湖市撤销最新消息 8月将启动
巢湖市撤销最新消息 8月将启动
这是安徽省政府首次证实坊间已流传数月的"巢湖拆分"一事。
安徽省民政厅一位负责人介绍，巢湖拆分的工作仍在推进之中，具体何时启动正在研究。
据安徽省政府一位知情人士透露，巢湖的居巢区、庐江县划归合肥，无为县划归芜湖，含山县、和县划归马鞍山，此划分方案已确定，目前研究的重点在于巢湖市政府公务员的人事安排问题。
此前有网友曝料称，现巢湖市政府53周岁以上的公务员，可能鼓励提前退休。对此，上述人士并未证实，称"情况比较复杂，但肯定会有一些人受到影响。"
据了解，巢湖市政府目前共有49个工作机构，其中，政府工作部门30个，直属机构9个，部门管理机构1个，双重或垂直管理机构9个。
部分区域经济专家认为，巢湖拆分对做大"合肥经济圈"，使其与周边的南京城市圈、武汉城市圈和长株潭城市圈形成竞争、合作的格局，有着重要的意义。
传了几个月，现在已经证实了巢湖市将撤销，网友称让400多万巢湖儿女"无家可归"为了经济伤了几百万人的感情，意义不大，建设大合肥就舍弃巢湖人民的凝聚力。
应该巢湖全体人民（包括庐江）公投，是否撤巢
巢湖市城市总体规划（2009-2030年）随着巢湖市撤销将成为空谈。
也要赞同的声音称:不发展不撤有什么用，安徽现在是发展的大好时机，该撤.
撤销才是顺应名意。
与其让居巢被人骂。还不如拆分、各过各的、。有多大不同。。无非地址栏改为了合肥芜湖马鞍山。
坐拥长江。拥有这么好的交通和区位。夹在合肥南京之间愣是发展不起来。早该 拆分了。皖江示范给予提供了这么一个机会，要不安徽谈何发展。夹在芜马合之间。彻底助碍其三市的发展。自己不发展不说了，还耽误别人的发展。
撤销之事，对于巢湖的领导班子是悲剧，但是对老百姓是利大于弊的事。
居巢和含山，组成小巢湖，再发展一段时间，也未尝不可
一步到位拆巢湖，似乎步子迈的有点大
不是步子大，一步到位省得以后再调整。
巢湖撤销 网络调查
调整时机正好，不早不晚：324人(61.7%)
调整时机未到，应当五年以后再调整：12人(2.2%)
这次可以调整，但应保留地级巢湖市（除居巢外仅辖含山一县）待五年后再调：20人(3.8%)
完全没有必要调整，属于瞎折腾：169人(32.1%) 截止时间：2012-01-07 11:03 | 已有投票人数：525
2011年6月上旬，中央批复文件已下达，将巢湖和六安的部分区域并入合肥，撤销地级市巢湖市。合肥将在短期内基本实现政区面积、人口数量翻番，合肥市辖县区数量也可能会增加到10多个。
《中国发展报告2010》对"十二五"期间及今后全国区域发展的大格局做了清晰的概括，江淮地区首次被列入全国重点发展的8大城市群当中，而合肥是江淮城市群中的核心城市，因此"在全国最新的生产力布局中，合肥承担起重要的战略功能，向区域性特大城市新跨越就具有了必然性。
合肥滨临巢湖，得天独厚。但是巢湖作为中国五大淡水湖之一，却是两个城市共管，缺乏统一的政策和管理，导致巢湖存在问题很多。历史上的巢湖市区域，很多也曾经就是庐州所辖。巢湖市地处巢湖和长江之间，是合肥通江达海的必然通道。
"巢湖市的编制已经冻结了。"近日，安徽省政府一位官员向本报记者透露。
这背后，隐藏着地方行政区划调整的一个大动作：分拆巢湖。即把巢湖拆解为三个部分，分别划入合肥、芜湖和马鞍山市。
巢湖市位于安徽省中部，濒临长江北岸，因著名的淡水湖巢湖而得名，与同处江北的合肥以及江南的芜湖、马鞍山相邻，都是皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区成员。 ) L1 A/ u% Z& t6 H% B+ s# G+ |
对于这个传闻已久的消息，本报记者近日也分别从安徽省、合肥市、巢湖市相关官员得到证实，但受访对象均表示并未看到省里相关文件。不过，本报记者获得的核心消息显示，安徽省方面已把分拆方案提交给国家层面。
本报独家获得的安徽省民政厅区划处《2011年重点工作序时进度安排》亦对该消息进行了侧面注解：2011年要积极稳妥的做好马鞍山、芜湖等沿江城市的市辖区结构调整，使之适应承接产业转移的需要；同时要做好合肥等中心城市的区域调整，以适应经济社会的快速发展。
一旦传闻变成事实，这将是皖江城市带示范区获批后的最大动作。
三分巢湖？ 9 @8 n$ o& V* C' R8 j. S1 W
分拆巢湖旨在推动中心城市战略 - R. f7 s$ G2 n2 |! G1 O7 k# L
巢湖将被分拆的消息在当地已经传得沸沸扬扬。 ( f9 p, b' o4 q/ l* l3 D7 ]
安徽境内长江约400公里，沿江自上游到下游分布着巢湖、芜湖、马鞍山等地区，除巢湖在江北，其余都在江南。 , `6 S f( B1 ~) `8 M
合肥虽不在长江边上，但和上述三个地区都同属于皖江城市带地区。
资料显示，合肥面积为7029.48平方公里，总人口约335万，2010年GDP为2702.5亿，在四个城市里面，GDP总量最高。
芜湖市面积3317平方公里，人口230万，2010年GDP为1108.6亿元；! [! z2 b7 Q/ C' N" y. i
马鞍山市1686平方公里，人口129.1万，2010年GDP为811.01亿元；
巢湖市总面积9423平方公里，总人口454万，2010年GDP为615亿元。
官方数据显示，2010年，皖江示范区九个城市的经济总量占全省比重超过66%，这其中主要就由上述四市贡献。而巢湖的实力相对较弱。
巢湖地区市区所在地为居巢区，靠近合肥，巢湖沿江两县无为县、和县，与江南的铜陵、芜湖、马鞍山隔江相望。 * k6 \3 x6 l: g! R; f
知情人士称，居巢区和庐江县划归合肥，无为县划归芜湖，含山县和和县划归马鞍山，但这一消息尚未得到官方正式证实。安徽省及巢湖市方面，同时表示不便透露任何相关规划调整的信息。 ( I/ w* D! c9 {7 Y& f
但官方还是有意无意地传到了部分消息。"扩大合肥行政区范围，将居巢区、庐江县、舒城县、寿县划归合肥管理……"由合肥市民ZJ制定的合肥市"十二五"民政事业发展规划中作出如上表述，安徽省当地不少媒体都发布了这一消息。 : C$ G# ?' \" j1 J6 B2 G
巢湖市撤销最新消息
本报记者独家获得的安徽方面《2011年全省民政工作要点任务分解方案》就显示，积极稳妥做好行政区划调整。培育中心城市，重点发展"两核两群"。即合肥、芜湖两核和长江城市群、淮河城市群。
皖江城市带的新动力
调整后合肥、芜湖、马鞍山在产业结构上具有很强的互补优势
对于此次为何要调整规划，从安徽省方面的书面文件或可见一斑。
此前，在2010年全国"两会"上，安徽代表团提出的第二项建议就是"关于适应经济社会发展需要，科学适时地调整行政区划的建议"。 9 }) g8 o- G7 P8 E" `
代表团在建议中认为，行政区划管理幅度过小、不利于区域经济的资源整合和结构升级，市一级行政中心经济功能不强，难以在发展中起到先导作用。 . B6 o- u. Y6 |$ v/ h) b1 u2 T5 o
安徽代表团建议国务院有关部门建立经常性的区划调整机制，根据实际情况适时批准对经济社会发展影响较大的行政区划调整，"以利于我省承接大规模产业转移需要，加快实现安徽经济跨越式发展"。 ; H& w4 S0 `! i, Q, w, _: e
中心城市带动力不强显然是事实，合肥作为省会，无论在面积、人口还是经济总量上均在安徽省内占比不大。 ( {$ E7 v5 ~3 B7 d X2 u. L
巢湖市撤销最新消息
与此同时，合肥市已经在巢湖边布局了滨湖新城，但受限于行政管辖的关系，如何和巢湖边上的巢湖市连接在一起有一定的困难。 0 k- J+ X* E/ [/ S* s
芜湖和马鞍山也遇到类似的问题，尽管两市发展迅速，但经济总量与江浙地级市相比，差距甚大，因此，如何扩大规模等也成为当地考虑的问题。 ' t ]. @" f: j5 Q8 f3 Y6 G' y H
不仅如此，皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区上升为国家战略后，安徽方面成立了江北产业集中区和江南集中区，其中江北产业集中区位于巢湖市和县境内，规划面积220平方公里。 ' y$ E. p/ W. s3 O, q# R$ r C# F
江北产业集中区管委会主任毕小彬此前在接受媒体采访时也肯定了江北产业集中区的意义，"江北产业集中区的设立有利于与芜湖、马鞍山两岸互动、跨江发展。" . Z2 O$ l3 A3 F9 X. D T
因此，一旦按照分拆方案，将有效地解决这一难题，同时，将合肥、芜湖、马鞍山正式连在一起，资料显示，三者在钢铁、汽车、家电产业上具有很强的互补优势。
而芜湖和马鞍山和长三角则是无缝对接，或将有效地促进上述地区的快速发展。*
Friday, 5 August 2011
台风路径实时发布系统 台风路径
台风路径实时发布系统 台风路径
台风路径实时发布系统 网址 http://www.ytwhw.com/taifeng/lujing/
这个台风路径实时发布系统可以查看当前台风梅花的实时路径，是引用浙江省台风路径实时发布系统
可以查看2011年的历史台风路径，和当前台风梅花云图，降雨，预报，风气等台风的相关信息。
浙江省台风路径实时发布系统，直奔长三角而来，超强台风梅花逼近，浙江沿海海域掀10米巨浪】今年第9号台风梅花，8月5日11时，风速45米/秒，移速15公里/小时，近中心最大风力14级，预计6号晚上登陆宁波鄞州区海曙区，可能会带来强降雨和强风暴。请各位相互转告，注意安全！实时关注：台风路径实时发布系统 http://www.ytwhw.com/taifeng/lujing/
江浙地区的朋友可以关注关注 看目前的图根据大陆和香港预测，将在象山石浦登陆，并往北移动擦过丹城西边，经过象山港，并向北穿过宁波市区，跨过钱塘江往嘉兴上海方向移动！
Peso Exchange rate 6 August 2011
| Forex Peso | EURO | USD | Forex Peso | |||||||||||
| 1 | UNITED STATES | DOLLAR | USD | * | 0.709371 | * | 1.000000 | * | 42.269000 | |||||
| 2 | JAPAN | YEN | JPY | 0.008970 | 0.012645 | 0.534500 | ||||||||
| 3 | UNITED KINGDOM | POUND | GBP | 1.152586 | 1.624800 | 68.678700 | ||||||||
| 4 | HONGKONG | DOLLAR | HKD | 0.090947 | 0.128208 | 5.419200 | ||||||||
| 5 | SWITZERLAND | FRANC | CHF | 0.924744 | 1.303611 | 55.102300 | ||||||||
| 6 | CANADA | DOLLAR | CAD | 0.723184 | 1.019472 | 43.092100 | ||||||||
| 7 | SINGAPORE | DOLLAR | SGD | 0.580643 | 0.818532 | 34.598500 | ||||||||
| 8 | AUSTRALIA | DOLLAR | AUD | 0.741718 | 1.045600 | 44.196500 | ||||||||
| 9 | BAHRAIN | DINAR** | BHD | 1.881969 | 2.653012 | 112.140200 | ||||||||
| 10 | KUWAIT | DINAR | KWD | |||||||||||
| 11 | SAUDI ARABIA | RIAL | SAR | 0.189176 | 0.266681 | 11.272300 | ||||||||
| 12 | BRUNEI | DOLLAR | BND | 0.578276 | 0.815195 | 34.457500 | ||||||||
| 13 | INDONESIA | RUPIAH | IDR | 0.000084 | 0.000118 | 0.005000 | ||||||||
| 14 | THAILAND | BAHT | THB | 0.023772 | 0.033512 | 1.416500 | ||||||||
| 15 | UNITED ARAB EMIRATES | DIRHAM | AED | 0.193142 | 0.272272 | 11.508700 | ||||||||
| 16 | CHINA | YUAN*** | CNY | 0.110168 | 0.155304 | 6.564500 | ||||||||
| 17 | KOREA | WON | KRW | 0.000668 | 0.000942 | 0.039800 | ||||||||
| 18 | EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION | EURO | EUR | 1.000000 | 1.409700 | 59.586600 | ||||||||
Forex Peso chart
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